How Recession Fears Are Shaping BTC Price Outlook

After cloning last week on a bullish outlook, Gold (XAU/USD) price opened the last week of the first quarter of 2025 in a bullish outlook. Gold price has surged over 3 percent since Thursday to trade at about $3,113 per ounce on Monday, during the mid-London session.

The capital flight from major global stock indexes and crypto assets has helped Gold’s price record five consecutive weekly bullish candlesticks. Furthermore, global markets have been preparing for a potential recession in the United States amid the reciprocal tariff issued by the Donald Trump administration.

Expected Impact on Bitcoin Price

By now, it is safe to say that Bitcoin is the digital gold, following the widespread adoption by institutional investors and nation-states. However, Bitcoin price has recorded a negative correlation with Gold price, especially since the second inauguration of the U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year.

After the U.S. tariff-war storm gets to subsides in the near future, the fear of further crypto capitulation will significantly diminish. Consequently, more investors heavily banked on gold will rotate their capital to the Bitcoin market to capitalize on a potential v-shaped rebound.

Moreover, Bitcoin price has not factored in the creation of the strategic BTC reserve in the United States and the clear regulatory outlook, which has attracted more institutional investors to date.

Already, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs have recorded the second consecutive week of cash inflow, after bleeding in the past five consecutive weeks.